In 2019, battery cost projections were updated based on publications that focused on utility-scale battery systems (Cole and Frazier 2019), with updates published in 2020 (Cole and Frazier 2020), 2021 (Cole, Frazier, and Augustine 2021), and 2023 (Cole and Karmakar 2023).
Battery storage costs have evolved rapidly over the past several years, necessitating an update to storage cost projections used in long-term planning models and other activities. This work documents the development of these projections, which are based on recent publications of storage costs.
The suite of publications demonstrates wide variation in projected cost reductions for battery storage over time. Figure ES-1 shows the suite of projected cost reductions (on a normalized basis) collected from the literature (shown in gray) as well as the low, mid, and high cost projections developed in this work (shown in black).
NREL utilizes the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) (Ho et al. 2021) for capacity expansion modeling, and the battery cost projections developed here are designed to be used in those models. Additionally, the projections are intended to inform the cost projections published in the Annual Technology Baseline (NREL 2024).
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